Forecasting Turkey’s energy demand using artificial neural networks: Future projection based on an energy deficit

Abstract

As Turkey has limited energy resources and satisfies a large part of its energy needs using foreign resources, this study evaluates Turkey’s current energy conditions and presents a set of energy projections to contribute to the country’s future plans, programmes and policies. Based on the widespread view that the energy deficit is one of the most important constraints on Turkey’s sustainable growth, this study presents a set of predictions covering Turkey’s energy production and consumption for the nine-year period between 2012 and 2020. Based on the results, this study also proposes a set of solutions. In this study, a projection of Turkey’s energy production is made by considering the energy production targets of existing plants and the new energy plants that are planned to be completed in the projected future. In addition, the energy demand is forecasted by using a type of artificial intelligence model known as an artificial neural network. © CESMAA 2009 - 2014.