Kalecik Havzasi Taskinlarinin Bulanik SMRGT Yöntemi Kullanilarak Belirlenmesi

Abstract

Taskinlar hidrolojik ve hidrolik yönleriyle insanlik tarihinde her zaman önemli bir konu olmus, büyük can ve mal kayiplarina neden olmustur. Asiri kentlesme, betonarme yapilarin artmasi ve buna bagli olarak çati örtüsü, asfalt, beton, yol sayisinin artmasi vb. bir havzaya veya bölgeye akan yagis miktarini yani akis katsayisini artirmaktadir. Ayrica dere yataklarinin yasam alanlarina dönüstürülerek dere kesitlerinin azaltilmasi, insan kaynakli taskinlarin artmasina neden olmaktadir. Tüm bunlara ek olarak küresel iklim degisikliginin etkileri, artan ekstrem meteorolojik olaylar (özellikle siddetli yagislar) ve bu ekstrem olaylarin zamansal ve mekânsal degisimleri de dikkate alindiginda sel riski hemen her bölge ve havza için artmaktadir. Dogal bir olay olan taskinlarin afete dönüsmemesi için tedbirlerin alinmasi gerekmektedir. Önlem alabilmek için taskinlarin önceden mümkün oldugunca dogru bir sekilde tahmin edilmesi gerekir. Deprem gibi bazi doga olaylarini tahmin etmek zor oldugundan bunlarin afete dönüsmesini engellemek de zordur. Ancak bu açidan taskinlari tahmin etmek nispeten kolaydir. Bu konudaki literatür oldukça eski ve kapsamlidir. Ancak taskin tahmini için önerilen yöntemler ya eski teknolojinin tahmin gücü düsük klasik yöntemleridir ya da fiziki neden-sonuç iliskisine dayanmayan ve bu nedenle yeterince güven vermeyen kara kutu yöntemleridir. . Nispeten daha iyi olanlarin avantajlarinin yani sira bazi dezavantajlari da vardir. Bu çalismada Kalecik Havzasi'nin taskin debisi tahmin edilmis ve haritalanmistir. Taskin hesaplamasi rasyonel yöntemle, taskin haritalarina dayali akis katsayisi ise SMRGT Yöntemi ile belirlenmistir.Floods have always been an important issue and have caused great losses of life and property in human history with their hydrological and hydraulic aspects. Excessive urbanization, increases flows into a basin or region, in other words, increase the flow coefficient. Also, the reduction in stream sections by converting streambeds into habitats causes an increase in human-induced floods. Additionally, when the effects of global climate change, the increased extreme meteorological events (i.e. heavy rains), and the temporal and spatial changes of these extreme events are considered, the flood risk is increasing for almost every region and basin. Measures must be taken to prevent flood, which is a natural event, from turning into a disaster. To take precautions, floods must be predicted in advance as accurately as possible. Since some natural events such as earthquakes are difficult to predict, it is also difficult to prevent them from turning into disasters. However, floods are relatively easy to predict. The literature on this subject is quite old. On the other hand, the methods proposed in the current literature are either classical methods of old technology and have low predictive power, or they are black-box methods that do not rely on a physics cause-effect relationship, and for this reason, do not give enough confidence. Relatively better ones also have some disadvantages as well as advantages. In the present study, a fuzzy model has been developed to estimate the flow rate. To construct the membership functions and to generate the fuzzy rules of the model the SMRGT method, which novel in literature, have been used. On the other hand, the main advantage of SMRGT makes estimation with physical cause - effect relationship (not only based on the data at hand). As results, the flow coefficient has been determined particularly for Kalecik Basin as an application. Furthermore, a flood risk map obtained for the same Basin. It can be concluded that the fuzzy SMRGT can be used for this aim and it gives more precious and realistic results compared with the conventional methods.